Defying the Enrollment Cliff: What Alabama’s Growth Reveals About Shifting Higher Ed Trends

Across much of the country, higher education leaders are working to stabilize enrollment amid changing demographics, shifting student expectations, and increasing competition from alternative learning paths. 

Nationally, 30 states have seen declines in full-time undergraduate enrollment between 2015 and 2024. Yet a handful of states are proving that growth is still possible, and Alabama is one of them. 

Recent analysis from The Birmingham Business Journals shows that while many regions continue to face enrollment declines, Alabama’s undergraduate population has grown over the past decade. Larger public universities and mission-driven HBCUs have led the way, showing that clear institutional identity and student-centered strategy can offset national trends. 

Auburn University has seen a 28% increase in full-time undergraduate enrollment since 2015, adding more than 5,000 students and reaching over 24,000 by fall 2024. Alabama A&M University grew by 33% over the same period, and both the University of Alabama and the University of Alabama at Birmingham reported record-breaking freshman enrollment in 2025. 

These gains highlight an important point: growth is not happening by chance. Institutions that align their programs, messaging, and outcomes with what today’s students value, such as affordability, flexibility, and career relevance, are the ones still moving forward. 

Across the country, enrollment is changing in more ways than one. Male undergraduate enrollment has declined in 36 states since 2015, representing a net loss of more than 100,000 students. Female students now make up the majority nationwide, a pattern reflected in Alabama, where women outnumber men by more than 17,000 students. 

The racial and ethnic makeup of college campuses is also shifting. Hispanic enrollment has grown by 35% over the past decade, while enrollment among white and Black male students has declined. These changes underscore the need for more inclusive marketing, stronger support systems, and programming that reflect the needs of an evolving student population.

Alabama’s story is part of a broader pattern among states that are adapting successfully to new realities. Utah, Texas, and New Hampshire have also seen significant gains, often driven by institutions that embraced online or hybrid models early. 

Western Governors University grew enrollment by more than 200% over the past decade through its flexible, competency-based approach. Dallas College expanded by 852%, while Southern New Hampshire University grew 248%. These schools have succeeded not because of geography, but because of their willingness to meet learners where they are. 

Whether in Alabama or elsewhere, institutions that are finding growth have a few things in common: 

• They focus on outcomes. Students are increasingly making enrollment decisions based on the return on investment of their education.
• They embrace flexibility. Programs that accommodate adult learners and working students are expanding access and extending reach. 
• They know their audience. Schools that invest in data-driven marketing and segmentation are connecting more authentically with students who fit their mission. 

For higher education leaders, the takeaway is clear: the enrollment cliff is not inevitable. Success depends on adaptability, not geography. 

The lesson from Alabama and from every state defying national gravity is that higher education’s future isn’t prewritten. The institutions finding stability and even growth aren’t simply avoiding decline; they’re rewriting the playbook. 

They’re doubling down on clarity of purpose, positioning themselves not as ivory towers but as engines of opportunity. They’re investing in marketing that doesn’t just reach students but resonates  speaking directly to learners’ aspirations for mobility, meaning, and measurable outcomes. And they’re building systems that respond in real time to student needs, not once per admissions cycle. 

The next decade will belong to institutions that treat enrollment strategy as a living discipline one rooted in data, powered by story, and guided by human connection. Alabama’s example proves that when colleges align their mission with modern learners, the so-called “enrollment cliff” becomes less a fall and more a turning point. 

At Advance Education, we help institutions transform those turning points into momentum connecting insight with action, and strategy with measurable results. Because the future of higher education belongs to the schools that are willing to adapt, communicate clearly, and grow with purpose.