Demographic Decline Meets Affordability Pressure
The Perfect Storm in Enrollment
Higher education faces a demographic cliff. By 2037, the number of high school graduates will fall by 12%, ending decades of expansion. This structural shift means institutions will compete more fiercely for fewer students.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
➜ The enrollment cliff is here.
➜ Confidence in four-year degrees has eroded sharply.
➜ Families want transparent, skills-forward education options.
Affordability Fatigue
A four-year degree now averages $25,600 annually at public universities and $60,000 at private ones. Gen X parents, many still managing their own student debt, are more skeptical than ever. Families demand clear ‘cost-to-complete’ plans and evidence that degrees translate to tangible outcomes.
The Confidence Collapse
Public trust in four-year institutions has fallen from 57% in 2015 to just 33% in 2024, according to the survey. Community colleges remain stronger at 48%, signaling that families still believe in education but seek models that feel affordable, flexible, and outcome-driven.
The Rise of Skills-Based Learning
Certificate and associate degree programs are up 11% year over year. This growth reflects a clear shift toward practical, career-oriented pathways that promise employability without overwhelming debt.
What Families Want Next
Families are gravitating toward institutions that can prove both value and versatility. They want options that feel personal, financially transparent, and aligned with real-world outcomes. For marketers, that means leading with clarity—publishing outcome data, cost-to-complete plans, and career placement metrics as early as possible.
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3rd Annual Parent & Student Survey
The New Rules Of Higher Education Marketing
How AI and Shifting Family Priorities are Reshaping Student Recruitment
Top motivators for both parents and students
Workbook ideas and prompts for all types of higher ed institutions
90-day framework for implementation
OUR LATEST WHITEPAPER
3rd Annual Parent & Student Survey
The New Rules Of Higher Education Marketing
How AI and Shifting Family Priorities are Reshaping Student Recruitment
AI isn’t new. It’s normal. Students and parents alike are increasingly using LLMs for research – for everything from homework help to their best options for higher education. If families already use AI to choose, the question is: how is your institution meeting them there? Our latest whitepaper outlines how to publish AI-readable answers to the most asked questions, making your value legible to both humans and machines.
